Sunday, June 24, 2007

Trade Like a Scientist

good one

 
 

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Trade Like a Scientist

via The Big Picture by ritholtz on Jun 24, 2007

Doc Steenbarger has a terrific 3 part series on trading like a scientist. All three posts are short and easily digestable, but here's what stood out to me:

* Observation and deduction are the key to developing a trading strategy;

* Understand what is meaningful and what is random.

* Scientists have humility; They know their best theories are only approximations of reality.

* Knowledge, for a true scientist, is always provisional; Ongoing empirical tests generate further additional observations and revisions.

* Scientists remain open to data that may invalidate their hypothesis.

* Scientists focus on the process and not the outcome. A single winning or losing trade does not prove a strategy works -- but it does provide some additional data.

* The aim of Science is to understand through observable phenomna, what is going on in reality. This, Scientific traders do not "Trade Without Understanding;"

* Since all scientists understand probabilities, they never Oversize positions;

* Recognizing errors is key to an objective mind. Thus, why Traders should be prepared to admit error: never average down, and always use stop losses.

Good stuff, Doc. Thanks!

>

Source:
Trade Like a Scientist - Part One: The Scientific Mindset
Brett Steenbarger
TraderFeed, June 15, 2007
http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2007/06/trade-like-scientist-part-one.html


 
 

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Design Philosophy?

very good article with links

 
 

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Design Philosophy?

via Sramana Mitra on Strategy by Sramana Mitra on Jun 23, 2007

We discussed Design Philosophy earlier. Recently, I asked around for people's design philosophies, and here's one answer that I want to showcase, to kick off this discussion.

::

I like to keep it simple and pleasing to the eye. A teacher once said to me: "When creating something look at it like a mini skirt. Make it short enough to keep it interesting and long enough to cover everything."

::

So, what is your design philosophy?


 
 

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Saturday, June 23, 2007

share your desktop: https://skyfex.com/expert/index.php



--
Regards,
Umesh Kumar

http://worthyarticles.blogspot.com/
http://learnbooks.blogspot.com/
http://cplusplusnotes.blogspot.com/

Catalyze - A New Community Site For Us

i want to check this out more

 
 

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Catalyze - A New Community Site For Us

via Tyner Blain by Scott Sehlhorst on Jun 19, 2007

catalyze logo

www.mycatalyze.org. From the FAQ:

What is the Catalyze community?
Catalyze is a new member-driven community for all professionals involved in the defining and designing software applications or websites. Catalyze is a place to share experiences, find resources, ask questions, offer opinions, get involved and network with other professionals engaged in defining and designing software applications and websites.

What is the goal of the Catalyze community?
The goal of the Catalyze community is to be the number one destination for software application definition and design professionals. Peer-based content is the most powerful force for change and learning in the world today. For the first time, that power is now in the hands of the professionals that define and design the world's software.

Who are the target members of the Catalyze community?
If you are a Business Analyst, UI Designer, Information Architect, Interaction Designer, Usability or UX Professional, Product Manager, Project Manager or anyone else involved in the definition process of a software application, then you will find value in joining the Catalyze Community.

From looking at the site, it looks like some great opportunities for all of us

  • Forums - good categories, including business analyst and usability job postings. Not a lot of traffic yet.
  • Resources - including articles, whitepapers, etc. It also allows members to upload resources.
  • Blogs - there are several blogs operating within the site, and a main page/feed that aggregates them. About 50 articles so far across 9 blogs. If you want to start a blog at Catalyze, there's a contact link.
  • Feeds - there's a feed room that has a widget that aggregates content from many blogs in our niche (including Tyner Blain - thanks guys).
  • Events - good focused calendar of upcoming events for BA and UX professionals.

Exciting

  • The event calendar is exciting to me - great opportunity to aggregate "what's going on.
  • Resources - I think there's a lot of opportunity here.
  • Job Posting Forum - I haven't really looked, so maybe there is a good place to post/find BA and UX jobs already on some other site. I like that it is here (and there are already over a dozen postings in each category).
  • The site is done in partnership with the IIBA and UPA. Excellent.

Not Bad

  • The other forum elements. When I think of a requirements forum, I think first of Seilevel's message boards. I don't know of a good UX forum.
  • Blogs. Good start, good framework. I'm optimistic that the content will grow consistently and be high quality. Jury's really out for now.

So check it out, sign up, contribute and make it great.


 
 

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Shameless Self-Promotion Week: LiveOps

interesting call center solution

 
 

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Shameless Self-Promotion Week: LiveOps

via VentureBlog by David Hornik on Jun 20, 2007

When I first met with LiveOps' CEO Maynard Webb, I asked him what it was about LiveOps that would get him back to work. After all, Maynard had just recently retired from Ebay where he had served as COO. While head of technology at Ebay he was credited with stabilizing a platform that, at the time, was on the verge or implosion. His reward for fixing the technology mess was a license to fix everything else as COO, which he did with great aplomb. Maynard had a well earned reputation as a tireless worker. Clearly he had earned himself a summer or two (or ten) off. But when Maynard heard the LiveOps story, he found himself back in the saddle.

So what was it about LiveOps that Maynard found so exciting? In his words it was the ability to do well while doing good. That may seem surprising when you consider that LiveOps is a call center software and services platform. At its core, LiveOps is an incredibly sophisticated VOIP software platform that allows a customer to route, track and manage calls in ways that none of the traditional systems allow. And one of the most important byproducts of LiveOps' all-IP system is that agents can be located anywhere that there's a web connection. They may all be located in a call center in Ohio, or they may be scattered throughout the country in their homes.

LiveOps is the biggest customer of its own call center software. Along with selling its platform to big corporate clients who are looking to better manage the performance of their agents (wherever they may sit), LiveOps uses its own software to manage the LiveOps distributed call center that now encompasses 13,000 active agents and growing rapidly. LiveOps agents on the whole tend to be stay-at-home moms and home-bound individuals who are looking for a way to make money while maintaining the flexibility to work where and when they choose, as may be dictated by their own personal circumstances. Which is precisely what appealed to Maynard. As he told me, one of the things he was most proud of with Ebay was that it empowers a whole host of entrepreneurs to create businesses that best suit their particular life circumstances. The same is true of LiveOps. Rather than outsourcing jobs to other countries, LiveOps insources opportunities to underemployed, but well-educated, individuals who need the flexibility to control their own work environment. And, as Maynard pointed out, the more successful LiveOps is at serving its customers with the most efficient and most effective call center available, the greater the number of individuals the company can empower to take control of their own circumstances.

There is another byproduct of this massive distributed phone force; LiveOps is the only call center in the world that can massively scale in short order to suit the needs of virtually any customers. One great example of this capacity to scale came immediately after the Hurricane Katrina disaster. The American Red Cross was inundated with requests to donate on behalf of the victims of the hurricane. In an effort to support the generosity of the country, the Red Cross went out looking for a call center that could field the enormous volume of calls for donations. Ultimately, only one company could deliver the necessary scale to support the overwhelming call volume, and that was LiveOps. In a matter of hours, LiveOps was able to route the Red Cross's 800 number to thousands of agents throughout the country, who immediately were able to service the generosity of hundreds of thousands of donors.

LiveOps recently put that capacity to good use again when American Idol had its Idol Gives Back campaign. During two separate American Idol shows, the stars of the show promoted a charitable giving program that included an 800 number on the screen and on their website. While the producers of American Idol suspected that the volume of giving would be quite large, they could not scope the scale of the participation with any specificity. That was no problem for LiveOps. They were able to scale the size of their phone force with demand, continuing to take pledges long into the night, and were unencumbered by the limitations of traditional call centers. What's more, they were able to give the American Idol producers instant feedback as to the scale and velocity of the program. In the end, LiveOps deployed over 3,400 agents who answered approximately 200,000 calls and collected more than $6 Million for charity. That's the sort of thing that makes Maynard Webb excited to come in in the morning. And it is the sort of thing that makes me thrilled to be an investor in LiveOps.


 
 

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Cognitive Biases: A Short List

i want to read the complete list. interestin gknowledge. maybe put on a chart and display it somewhere prominent

 
 

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Cognitive Biases: A Short List

via The Big Picture by ritholtz on Jun 17, 2007

One of the aspects of investing that I have long enjoyed is looking at the many ways are wetware works against us. Despite what nearly half of America believes, we have evolved in a certain way, and that has significant repercussions for our analytical processes.

There are many ways our brain wiring fools us. I discussed a few in the Apprenticed Investor series -- Know Thyself and Curb Your Enthusiasm -- that are worth revisiting. And one of the favored books around here is Thomas Gilovich: How We Know What Isn't So.

Many of the common foibles investors get themselves into can be tracked to our propensity for cognitive bias. What our minds commonly do to distort our own view of reality has an impact on our invement results.

So you can imagine my surprise and delight when I stumbled upon this Wikipedia list. Here are the 26 most studied and widely accepted cognitive biases:

  1. Bandwagon effect - the tendency to do (or believe) things because many other people do (or believe) the same. Related to groupthink, herd behaviour, and manias. Carl Jung pioneered the idea of the collective unconscious which is considered by Jungian psychologists to be responsible for this cognitive bias.
  2. Bias blind spot - the tendency not to compensate for one's own cognitive biases.
  3. Choice-supportive bias - the tendency to remember one's choices as better than they actually were.
  4. Confirmation bias - the tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions.
  5. Congruence bias - the tendency to test hypotheses exclusively through direct testing.
  6. Contrast effect - the enhancement or diminishment of a weight or other measurement when compared with recently observed contrasting object.
  7. Déformation professionnelle - the tendency to look at things according to the conventions of one's own profession, forgetting any broader point of view.
  8. Disconfirmation bias - the tendency for people to extend critical scrutiny to information which contradicts their prior beliefs and uncritically accept information that is congruent with their prior beliefs.
  9. Endowment effect - the tendency for people to value something more as soon as they own it.
  10. Focusing effect - prediction bias occurring when people place too much importance on one aspect of an event; causes error in accurately predicting the utility of a future outcome.
  11. Hyperbolic discounting - the tendency for people to have a stronger preference for more immediate payoffs relative to later payoffs, the closer to the present both payoffs are.
  12. Illusion of control - the tendency for human beings to believe they can control or at least influence outcomes which they clearly cannot.
  13. Impact bias - the tendency for people to overestimate the length or the intensity of the impact of future feeling states.
  14. Information bias - the tendency to seek information even when it cannot affect action.
  15. Loss aversion - the tendency for people to strongly prefer avoiding losses over acquiring gains (see also sunk cost effects)
  16. Neglect of probability - the tendency to completely disregard probability when making a decision under uncertainty.
  17. Mere exposure effect - the tendency for people to express undue liking for things merely because they are familiar with them.
  18. Omission bias - The tendency to judge harmful actions as worse, or less moral, than equally harmful omissions (inactions).
  19. Outcome bias - the tendency to judge a decision by its eventual outcome instead of based on the quality of the decision at the time it was made.
  20. Planning fallacy - the tendency to underestimate task-completion times.
  21. Post-purchase rationalization - the tendency to persuade oneself through rational argument that a purchase was a good value.
  22. Pseudocertainty effect - the tendency to make risk-averse choices if the expected outcome is positive, but make risk-seeking choices to avoid negative outcomes.
  23. Selective perception - the tendency for expectations to affect perception.
  24. Status quo bias - the tendency for people to like things to stay relatively the same.
  25. Von Restorff effect - the tendency for an item that "stands out like a sore thumb" to be more likely to be remembered than other items.
  26. Zero-risk bias - preference for reducing a small risk to zero over a greater reduction in a larger risk.

Complete list of cognitive biases - Wikipedia

>

via Healthbolt


 
 

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Guest Posts: The Year in Review

i think these are good articles with nice pointers to websites. innocentive and brightidea are two in the first 5-6 articles i read.

 
 

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Guest Posts: The Year in Review

via Sourcing Innovation by Michael Lamoureux on Jun 07, 2007

Over the past year, I've blogged a number of guest posts over on eSourcing Forum, including forty posts last summer as part of the weekend series. For new(er) readers to the blog, here is a list of all guest posts over on eSourcing Forum with direct links. Weekend Series Posts Purchasing Innovation I: An Introduction Purchasing Innovation II: TRIZ Purchasing Innovation III: The Verifier Approach Purchasing Innovation IV: Innovation Continued Purchasing Innovation V: Sourcing the New Organization ...

 
 

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Friday, June 22, 2007

It's About Place (Part 3)

i shud read again to get a feeling for it

 
 

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It's About Place (Part 3)

via Sramana Mitra on Strategy by Calvin McElroy on Jun 20, 2007

by Cal McElroy, Guest Author

Location is fundamental to our personal and business lives - yet it is a concept that is easily and often misunderstood. The Oxford Dictionary defines this word as "the point or extent of space that is occupied by a person, place or thing". So a place is not a location - it has a location...

In fact, location is an abstract concept that is described by geometry (e.g. lat/long coordinates, boundary polygon, or the intersection of two lines for a major street intersection). This geometry, when used with a geographic reference system, can define "where" in the world a person, place or thing is located. And in turn, mapping systems can depict this location at various levels of granularity or zoom scale.

Most human beings have spatial intelligence and some degree of geographic knowledge - so the location encoded in the answer "near San Jose" to the question "where are you?" actually means something. The vast majority of computers systems (with the exception of mapping and GIS systems) might achieve a string match on San Jose, but will have no concept of near - or closest, adjacent, contained by, or within 5 miles.

Invariably, the answer to the question where is a place reference (except in the military, where "geographic coordinates" are commonly used). This reference could be a street address, building name, intersection, neighborhood, district, region, natural or man made landmark, city, state, country, and numerous other concepts for place. These are all physical real world objects, unlike location, which describes a theoretical spatial extent.

Places are identified by addresses, place names (often building occupant or owners name) and other codes - and always have a location. Within enterprise computing and the web, location context is emerging as an important way to organize and find information -but location it is really a function of place. In a search-oriented user interface, a simple "where are you looking for it?" box could prompt a wide range of place references at many levels of granularity, from country to a suite within a building or store within a mall.

According to an urban myth (some city or county level study, completed 15 years ago that is referenced by virtually everyone involved with maps and GIS), 80% or more of the worlds information is associated with locations. Actually, it's not! This content contains place references such as addresses or place names, and must be transformed by a process called geocoding (determine the lat/long coordinates for street address, ZIP code or city name), to associate the content with a location.

Why does this distinction matter? Simply - if this content is not enhanced with geometry and geographic data elements, and linked to and indexed by a spatially-enabled search or mapping engine, there is no location intelligence! In an earlier part of this series, I pointed out that there is a tiny amount of content indexed by Local Search engines, as compared to the keyword search engines in the Web. This place-to-location conundrum, at the data level, is reason.

So, we have established that places are real world objects and always have a location. What about the other objects we represent in our databases and documents... people and things? This gets interesting because places typically don't move around, but people and things do! In fact, according to United States Postal Service and directory publishers like Yellow Pages, 25 - 30 % of consumers and businesses move every year. But, using the model we have established, they are not moving (directly) to new locations, but rather to a new physical home, apartment or place of business - which has a location. Errors, discrepancies, and lack of standards in address entry interfaces make address data integrity and thus, the accuracy of location a global problem.

And finally, we have vehicles, cell phones, or PDAs with GPS or other "locator" technologies... these mobile things (or the person carrying them) are not directly associated with a physical place. Mobile assets and resources have a "position" and may be "at" or near place.

Mapping engines, spatial indexes, and GeoTags (geocode tags on content) have center stage in Local Search at the moment, but there are several big problems with this approach:

1. Precision - there are 20 to 50 meter error factors involved in the various address validation, geocoding, map data, spatial index, GPS and mapping components needed to determine and display a location. A lat/long pair does not uniquely identify a building, let alone a suite or store within a building.

2. The vast majority of business data and web content contains place references and not location attributes, and must be processed, indexed, integrated and linked to a spatially-enabled search/mapping engine to enable location-centric search.

3. There is a hierarchy of places (e.g. suite, building, street, city, county, state, country), and the relevance of the search result can vary widely based on where in this heirarchy, the user initially anchors his search. In other words, a single piece of content could be (appropriately) associated with all the places in this list.

4. Reverse Geocode - determining the real world place from a lat/long coordinate, say from a GPS chip on a cell phone, is fraught with problems and is highly inaccurate, due to the precision issues above and the lack of a definitive database of places, with precise lat/long attributes, to compare the position to.

A use case that ties this all together, is inventory on the shelf of a specific store. The Mall of America in Bloomington MN, has 9 different valid street addresses (and associated lat/long attributes) - none of which uniquely identify any one of 520 stores. Items in the store are associated with specific places, but couldn't be geocoded, mapped and located in a Local Search context, until they are linked to the higher level mall object, and associated with the "nearest" mall entrance, based on a detailed floor plan.

A URL for a virtual place in the Internet is unique, precise and reliable for finding content, regardless how far down the tree structure of specific domain name, the content is organized. This concept of a unique place identifier, place hierarchy and index does not exist in the way content about real world places is currently organized.

If indeed 80% of the worlds content is associated with places, and these places all have locations, then a universal method to index and organize this content, based on place-centricity, and associated location intelligence, would be major step forward for the Local Search and Location-Bases Services (LBS) industry.

To be continued...


 
 

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Avoiding Supply Chain Disasters

interesting facts and pointers etc that

 
 

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Avoiding Supply Chain Disasters

via Sourcing Innovation by Michael Lamoureux on Jun 14, 2007

Last year, Supply Chain Digest documented The 11 Greatest Supply Chain Disasters of all time which contained a number of lessons on what not to do if you want a successful supply chain. Since it's probably been a while since you scanned it, now would be a good time for a brief review. The lessons therein are valuable.

  • Don't rely on unproven / untested technology or aggressive automation.
    The rate of technological advancement these days is rapid, but that's not a guarantee the systems will be ready when you need them.
    (Foxmeyer, GM, WebVan, Adidas, Denver Airport)
  • Don't upgrade all your core systems at once.
    Integration is usually more involved and time consuming than you think. The big-bang approach doesn't work.
    (Foxmeyer, Hershey, Nike)
  • Don't overestimate your capabilities.
    A sure way to lose customers is to over-promise and under-deliver - especially if the short-fall is significant.
    (Toys R Us.com)
  • Don't forget the basics of good demand planning!
    Forecast, read signals, and repeat.
    (Cisco, Apple)
  • Don't sacrifice quality for perceived lower costs.
    Lower costs don't always exist, especially if your costs are low and quality best-in-class, relatively speaking.
    (Aris Isotoner)
  • Don't count on an unlimited budget.
    Capital is always limited.
    (WebVan)

 
 

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NAM's Manufacturing Profiles, A Resource

 
 

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NAM's Manufacturing Profiles, A Resource


Glad to see people beginning to take notice of the NAM's new manufacturing profiles for each congressional district. The Oakland (Mich.) Press cited the profiles for a piece on the local manufacturing economy and House members, Republicans Joe Knollenberg and Thaddeus McCotter and Democrat Sander Levin.

New data show manufacturing continues to be critical to Oakland County.

U.S. Rep. Joe Knollenberg, R-Bloomfield Hills, said in a report this week that his district, which includes much of Oakland County, has more manufacturing jobs than all but two other congressional districts in the nation. More than 96,000 jobs in Knollenberg's district are linked to manufacturing, according to the National Association of Manufacturers.

The neighboring district represented by U.S. Rep. Sander Levin, D-Royal Oak, which includes parts of south Oakland and Macomb County, also is among the top 10 congressional districts with a large manufacturing sector, according to the NAM data. Levin's district had more than 84,000 manufacturing-related jobs.

The 11th Congressional District, represented by U.S. Rep. Thaddeus McCotter, R-Livonia, which also covers a large portion of Oakland County, as well as western Wayne County, held nearly 60,000 manufacturing-related jobs. The NAM profiles -- please click here -- include data on the number of manufacturing plants in the district, top manufacturing sectors, number of jobs, and gross state product.

Great resource for journalists and voters seeking information.


 
 

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Wednesday, June 20, 2007

Effective Management Techniques

 
 

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Effective Management Techniques

via Sramana Mitra on Strategy by Sramana Mitra on Jun 17, 2007

You have read Dominique' article, Top Ten, on an effective management technique from the Steve Jobs school.

Do you have such well-honed and highly effective management techniques that you would like to share?

Here are a couple I received from the network:

Bruce Everiss: MBWA. Management By Walking About. Just regularly walking round the company/department chatting to people. You have your finger on the pulse, everyone knows who you are and you learn loads from impromptu discussions with staff at all levels. It was part of the HP way practiced by Bill Hewlett and Bill Packard and gets promoted in the book "A Passion For Excellence" by Tom Peters.

Ian Davis: I discovered a technique that creates incentive, builds allegiance and reduces churn rate all at the same time. I have used for years in every management role I've had since 1992. I call it "The Roadmap To Accomplishment".

What I do, is I sit down with my direct reports and help them define "where they want to be" professionally, in 18 months. For one person, it might be a management position, for someone else it might be a position in another department or even another company. For others, it could be to achieve a higher level of performance at what they currently do.

After, we define the 18 month objective, we agree upon quarterly goals designed to get him or her where he or she wants to be. I require my subordinate managers to do the same with their people. Whoever reaches their quarterly goal gets a reward, usually time off or a dinner for two at a nice restaurant. The reward gets bigger each time for those who consistently meet their quarterly goals more than twice in a row. Although everyone's goals and objectives are kept confidential, I do track each person's progress on a large grease board for everyone to see. I also send out annoucements praising those who hit their goals.

I found this to be an excellent team building tool. Besides helping people achieve a major objective, it has resulted in long term friendships and ongoing professional relationships that continue today.

Please contribute yours below.


 
 

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Saturday, June 16, 2007

the webware 100 link is a good resource

 
 

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Help Us Take Down Wikipedia!

via Ross Mayfield's Weblog by Ross Mayfield on May 23, 2007

Socialtext is a finalist in the Webware 100, in the Reference category for some reason. So vote for us! We all know that Wikipedia is unreliable, Google Maps is so 1.0 and IMDB doesn't have user-generated movies.

But seriously, these "people's choice" awards are based on who can draw short-attention or vote bots. Can't we bring the industry back to the good old fashioned 100 awards? You know, the kind where you bribe someone?


 
 

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prefer pass by reference to const to pass by value


default is pass by value.fn parameters are initialized with copied of actual parameters.

passing params by refernce avoids the slicing problem.
when a derived class object is passed as a base class object, then the base class constructor is called,and derived class parts are lost.... that means virtual functions will resolve to base class inside called function ?

i want to test it out in code.

for built in types, stl iterators and types for which you know that pass by value is inexpensive , function object types you can use pass by value ( though you wanna be sure that the size of these types wont become large in future).

what are function object types and why is pass by value appropriate for them ?
things to remember:
prefer pass by reference to const over pass by value. its typically more efficient and it avoids the slicing problem

the rule doesn't apply to built in types and stl iterators and function object types for them pass by value is usually appropriate


Fwd: Treat class design as type design

Class designer = type designer.

How should objects fo your new type be created and destroyed ? --this effects your constructors, destructors, memory allocation and deallocation( operator new, new[], delete , delete[]) etc. Shud people call a static fn / normal creation/singleton/ restricted access (??) of some kind , who is responsible for releasing allocated resources, clients or class is self managing, centralized resource release, reference counting or auto ptr semantics when things are copied ?

How should object initialization differ from object assignment ? -- this answers the differences that will be there between your constructor and your assignment operators. think reference counting, no assignment, deep copy etc ??

What does it mean for objects of your new type to be passed by value  -- remember pass by value is defined by the implementation of your copy constructor.

What are the restrictions on legal values for your new type : --- this determines the invariants that your class needs to maintain, invariants determine your error checking and exceptions your functions throw and exception specifications of your functions

Does your new type fit into an inheritance graph ---if you are inheriting than you are constrained by your parent classes ( their virtual,abstract and non virtual functions and destructors) and if other classes are going to inherit from you than do you want to have virtual/abstract/non virtual functions and destructors ?

What kind of type conversion are allowed for your new type --- do you want to define any implicit conversion operators. And explicit conversion functions

What operators and functions make sense for the new type --- what functions you want to declare, shud they be member /friend/outside/ in same name space/public functions/private functions/ etc. Does it make sense to nest your class inside another class

What standard functions should be disallowed -- declare these private, e.g. may copy in network socket connection management class etc)

What is the undeclared interface of your new type ---what guarantees it offers w.r.t performance, exception safety, resource usage ( locks , dynamic memory), these impose restraints on your implementation.

How general is your new type : are you defining a new type or a whole new family of types, if you defined a family of types than you want to define a new class template not just a class

Is a new type really what you need ---- if purpose of new class is just old class + more functionality…then you can maybe use some non member functions or templates to get the work done


Its hard to design smart classes..but worth it.

Things to remember:
Class design is type design. Before defining a new type , be sure to consider all the issues discussed in this item

I need to reread this item and get a hang on it



There's No Inflation -- Except for Necessities

interesting note at the end indicating that china was a net seller of treasury bonds last month.

 
 

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There's No Inflation -- Except for Necessities

via The Big Picture by ritholtz on Jun 16, 2007

Barron's Alan Abelson weighs in on one of of our regularly and favored subjects: There is no inflation, except for all those pesky things going up in price (a/k/a/ inflation ex-inflation):

THERE'S NO INFLATION -- EXCEPT FOR SUCH NECESSITIES of daily sustenance as food, gasoline and The Wall Street Journal (which, in case you were too busy having a jolly time at the beach to notice when it was disclosed, next month will fetch $1.50 a copy rather than the current buck). But those are obviously exceptions that prove the point, for none constitutes a component of core inflation, so, in the larger economic scheme of things, how significant can any of them be?

Once again last week, confronted by a disquieting indication that inflation is alive and virulent -- namely, that the producer-price index shot up 0.9% in May -- the Émile Coué chorus in the Street rushed to reassure the investing masses by singing their anthem of everything gets better every day, citing the much more demure 0.2% rise in core producer prices as incontrovertible evidence. And, we're pleased to say, the masses were sufficiently reassured to shrug off the downbeat data and send the market bounding ahead.

And, of course, fresh fuel for the bulls came the very next morning as that same Coué chorus -- or should we more properly call them "core-ists" -- seized on release of the consumer-price index as confirmation that all's well on the inflation front. What better proof, they exulted, than the miserly 0.1% uptick in the CPI -- once you take out pesky items like food and energy. As for the 0.7% rise in the CPI when food and energy are included, "pshaw," they scoffed, that's just the "headline number"!

For the life of us, we must confess, we don't quite understand why "headline" is a pejorative. Do those contemptuous of us benighted souls who award it more serious notice laugh and sneer when a banner headline in their daily proclaims, "War Is Declared" or "World's Tallest Building Collapses" or "Mets Win"?

We've no objection, of course, to anything that makes people happy, even if it's a patently ersatz invention of the Federal Reserve conceived in the '70s when that august body was desperate to find a semantic antidote to the heaving inflation of the time. So at the behest of the then cantankerous chairman, Arthur Burns, it tossed out first energy and then food from the standard calculation of inflation. The result, lo and behold!, was "core inflation," which has served nicely over the years to dim the perception of inflation and buoy spirits on Wall Street, if not in the real world whose inhabitants have to cope best they can with rising prices. (Please don't accuse us of being anti-semantic; our source is the redoubtable Steve Roach, who was one of the economic-spear carriers at the Fed back then.)

And we're also aware that the price of certain commodities has plummeted. DRAM prices, as we noted some weeks back, have suffered a huge markdown. Moreover, the Journal reports that a gram of cocaine, which sold for around $200 barely a decade ago, can be bought these days for as little as $20 (which perhaps tells you more about the no-inflation crew's recreational habits than the legitimacy of their overall analysis).

Bur for ordinary folks like us who don't dabble in DRAMS or do coke, such instances of lower prices might as well be snippets of fluff. The stuff, essential and not so essential both, we must fork over our hard-earned dough to acquire has been getting inexorably more costly for quite a spell now. And to judge by the action in the commodities markets -- wheat at an 11-year high, crude at a nine-month peak, etc. after sad etc. -- we might as well grimace and bear it, and draw what solace we can from the knowledge that core inflation is so meek.

Not much more to add to that . . .



UPDATE June 16, 2007 9:22am

The NYT's Floyd Norris weighs in on the same subject in a blog post: Inflation Soars -- But Wall Steet Ignores It:

"Wall Street is relieved that inflation is under control. Consumers know it isn't.

Share prices are soaring today, on the good news that the core consumer price index was up just 0.1 percent in May. Economists are ignoring the fact that the overall C.P.I was up 0.7 percent.

The core figure leaves out food and energy, and since that is the rate the Federal Reserve watches, traders think there is little risk of a Fed move to tighten. The theory is that food and energy numbers can be volatile and thus misleading.

The trouble with only watching the core rate is that real people eat and also use energy. And changes in those prices are important over long periods of time.

Over the past three months, the total consumer price index has risen at a high annual rate of 7 percent, while the core rate is advancing at the small rate of 1.6 percent.

To be sure, three months is a short period. But four years is not. Over that period, the overall CPI is up at an annual rate of 3.15 percent, a full percentage point more than the core rate. Food is up at a 3.1 percent rate, a 13 year high for that measure. And energy costs have risen at a 12.9 percent annual rate.

Norris also notes that recently, China was a net seller ($941 million) of Treasury bonds. "One month does not make a trend, but if China is getting hesitant about adding to its Treasury portfolio, interest rates could be headed up even if the Fed does want to ignore the actual inflation rate."

I wonder if there is any correlation between our interest rates and that little factoid . . .



>

Source:
Perils of Going Public
ALAN ABELSON
UP AND DOWN WALL STREET
Barron's, June 18, 2007
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB118137047234330191.html

Inflation Soars -- But Wall Steet Ignores It
Floyd Norris
NYT, June 15, 2007, 11:39 am
http://norris.blogs.nytimes.com/?p=202#comment-769


 
 

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Thursday, June 14, 2007

nexus on tyner blain is a archive of good articles

i think i shud just read all of it

--
Regards,
Umesh Kumar

http://worthyarticles.blogspot.com/
http://learnbooks.blogspot.com/
http://cplusplusnotes.blogspot.com/

Planning for Effective Meetings

i probably want to read this entire article

 
 

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Planning for Effective Meetings

via Tyner Blain by Scott Sehlhorst on Jun 14, 2007

effective meetings

Jonathan Babcock has written a couple interesting articles on preparing for a review meeting. He touches on a couple generic "good ideas" and explores one critical idea in more detail. We focus on that detail - helping participants be prepared to participate - in this article. His articles, and this topic in general are useful to anyone who runs meetings that require participation from attendees - business analysts, product managers, and project managers, for example.

Meeting Planning Articles

We've created a bundle of articles at nexus about how to plan and run effective meetings. The bundle includes both of Jonathan's articles, as well as one of our own on making meetings more effective and a Business Week article on how Google runs meetings.

The bundle is open for collaboration, so other nexus users may add other articles on the topic. You don't have to be a registered user at nexus to read the articles, so click on over and check them out. Then take a couple minutes to register and rate or review the articles - because the seconds you spend vetting these articles will save others minutes when they are researching in the future.

Summarizing the Main Prep-Points

Jonathan's main prep points include

  • Distributing the material early enough for participants to review and provide feedback
  • Circulating an agenda in advance
  • Reserve the meeting room & equipment
  • Request confirmation of attendance or delegation where appropriate

The other articles include the following prep points

  • Defining the goals and deliverables of the meeting up front to set expectations
  • Assigning a note-taker or scribe for the meeting

Unprepared Participants

Jonathan raises an interesting issue - when, in spite of your prep work, people fail to prepare for the meeting, what should you do? This is a tough one. If you start with the assumption that only people who need to be in the meeting are actually invited to the meeting, this issue becomes critically important. In many organizations, too many people attend meetings. They are certainly wasting their own time, and often end up wasting everyone's time. If you are culturally obligated to invite superfluous people to the meetings, that's unfortunate, but don't worry about making sure they are prepared. Focus on the people who need to be there and be prepared.

Jonathan writes his advice specifically for requirements specification review meetings - where people's input is critically important. The issues and advice apply to any of a number of collaborative or approval meetings. They can be generally described as meetings where multiple people need the information, should provide input, and ultimately must agree on the outcome of the meeting.

Don't Do This

Sometimes you, and everyone else in the meeting needs to take the efficiency hit of dragging along the folks who didn't do their homework. If you have to, you have to. After the meeting, talk privately with the person who let everyone down, and work together to prevent it from happening in the future.

Don't attack the person publicly in the meeting. Don't slam your notebook closed and declare the meeting to be over because someone had something more important to do. That would be just as unprofessional as it was to discover that people were unprepared for the meeting. Maybe that person did have something more important to do. The problem truly isn't that they were unprepared, the problem is that you didn't know about it in advance, and couldn't respond appropriately.

That's the crux of the issue, and the reason that Jonathan's advice is good.

Do This Instead

Touch base with the attendees before the meeting. Make sure that everyone who needs to be prepared is prepared. If someone needs to bring materials, make sure they have them ready to go. Work with them to get them completed if you need to. Reschedule the meeting if you need to. Carry on with the meeting, and deal with the missing contributions if that is what is appropriate. You can't do everyone's job for them - but you can do your job for everyone. The meeting attendees are implicitly relying upon you to not waste their time. And since it is your meeting, if someone you are relying upon is failing to deliver, it is your responsibility to adapt.

Jonathan offers a couple suggestions to get attendees to prepare for the meeting. His first suggestion is to get their inputs so that you can incorporate them into the agenda. This is a good approach, because it helps attendees develop a sense of ownership in the agenda. Even if they don't modify the agenda, they are taking some ownership in what you have put together by acknowledging and accepting it.

Jonathan also suggests letting attendees know that you will cancel or reschedule the meeting if you don't have their inputs a day or two in advance of the meeting. We would approach this with a slightly lighter touch, but we like the base idea. When there are inputs that would crater the meeting if they were absent, work with the contributors to assure that they will have those inputs ready. If they can't get them done in time, work with them to reschedule the meeting (before the meeting begins) so that you can carry out the meeting with their inputs.

Often, meetings get derailed when people who are "too busy" are simply not conversant with the material to be covered. They don't have the background they need, or a deep enough understanding to be effective in the meeting. The classic example is a decision maker who needs to know the context for making decisions. When everyone else in the meeting has the context, you're wasting their time getting the decision maker up to speed during the meeting. Work with that attendee to find a time to help them review before the meeting, or reschedule the meeting, or ask them not to attend it at all. If you have a one hour meeting with seven people, you're wasting six hours (across the team) by going over the material again to get the laggard up to speed. Wouldn't it be better to spend two hours in a one-on-one with that person before the group gets together?

To quote Jonathan:

Worst of all, whether it's completely fair or not, the productivity of a Business Analyst's meetings are seen as a direct reflection on the his/her organizational and interpersonal skills.

Other Approaches

Craig Brown offers a couple tips in the comments on Jonathan's second article. He suggests meeting with the leaders in advance of the meeting, and also providing them with printed versions of the materials before the meeting. Craig suggests letting the leaders know that you will collect their "marked up" versions of the documents [before] the meeting. I've seen this be very effective with upper managers and decision makers. There's something about marking up a print-out that engages these folks.

Maybe they are less comfortable with electronic documents (although that is becoming less true every day, and varies from company to company). I suspect that marking up a paper copy allows someone to "scan" more effectively, cross-reference with other documents, and put things in context better. Often the "decision makers" are in a unique position of having fewer details and more context. Giving them an alternative medium for reviewing the docs may help them to put things in perspective more effectively.

What approaches would you suggest?


 
 

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The World's Power Law Crazy, Lawdy So Am I

motivating and calming article

 
 

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The World's Power Law Crazy, Lawdy So Am I

via The Stalwart by Joseph Weisenthal on Jun 12, 2007

Over the past few years, there's been more talk about the so-called "long tail" than most people could reasonably expect to stomach. Sure, it's a useful concept, but at some point you have to have move on in your thinking. Lately, it seems, everyone is talking about power laws, black swans, kurtosis, and non-Gaussian distributions. These are related concept to the long tail, except that they're more interested in the heads (and their frequency, size and significance), than the tail. Even the US Treasury is reminding hedge fund investors that just because we haven't had a .400 hitter (in baseball) in several years, it doesn't mean there won't be another one right around the corner. I've been on this kick for some time. A key characteristic of power law distributions is that the "average" of the pool doesn't mean anything. Sure, you can mathematically compute the average, but it doesn't give you any usable information on the whole dataset.

Of course, there's been a lot of talk about how to exploit (or protect yourself against) these market dynamics (which are arguably becoming more pronounced). One way to take advantage of this is to be YouTube. Create a platform that serves as a petri dish for all kinds of media, some of which will break out and be huge (Coke & Mentos videos), while others will languish in obscurity. There's just one problem, being YouTube is tough. Not every business can be a platform, unfortunately.

Another approach is to be a fast responder. In other words, acknowledging that there's no way to predict what will explode (they're black swans after all), you have to be ready to ride the top of wave comes next.

The best recent example I can think of is Toyota and its Prius line. Regardless of whether the Prius is actually as environmentally friendly as its thought to be, there's no doubt that it's been an extraordinary hit. Last week, the company announced that it's sold its millionth one. The rise of hybrid vehicles (which is related to a number of things including the Iraq War, 9/11/ and global warming) was really difficult to anticipate back in 2000. No company trying to figure out what the "average" car buyer was looking for could've ever been expected to predict the demand for hybrid cars. As such, the Detroit automakers were caught completely off guard. Even seven years later, they're still not moving the dial in this market. It's not that Toyota anticipated selling so many Priuses, but that the company was prepared to handle the wave of demand for them once they did start taking off.

There would seem to be two kinds of business that can thrive in markets with this type of model. Companies like Google harvest tiny dollops of profit scattered widely across the land. And companies like Toyota are prepared to react to the unexpected spikes, which nobody can predict, but only react to.


 
 

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Wednesday, June 13, 2007

Tax Cuts for the Taxpayers: If it ain't broke, why fix it?

i want to read the paper mentioned in the article, that shud be perspective broadening

 
 

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Tax Cuts for the Taxpayers: If it ain't broke, why fix it?

via The Skeptical Optimist by Optimist123 on Jun 08, 2007

Two days ago I discovered a recent paper by the Tax Foundation, and so far it's the only example I've found that categorizes the total federal tax burden by quintile (households grouped by income level). Definitely take the time to...

 
 

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